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Historically known for making graphics processing units (GPUs) for computers, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) has evolved dramatically in recent years to become a powerhouse in massive new industries.
Due to the computationally intensive nature of rendering 3D models, graphics cards have proven to be remarkably good at handling artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads as well as being adept at cryptocurrency mining.
Thanks to those new market opportunities, NVIDIA shares have rallied by over 1,600% over the past five years, allowing its market cap to top $500 billion. The stock is currently trading at all-time highs of around $817, or approximately 96.5 times earnings as investors price in lofty growth expectations going forward.
The average price target for NVIDIA shares among Wall Street analysts is $734.03, with a high of $900 and a low of $440.
Price: $819.48 (as of close Jul 2, 2021)
Market Cap: 510,536,040,000
NVIDIA Stock Forecast 2021
First off, note that NVIDIA’s fiscal years differ from calendar years. The company closed fiscal year 2021 at the end of January 2021 and NVIDIA is currently in the middle of fiscal year 2022. All of the estimates below will be presented based on fiscal years.
NVIDIA saw total revenue climb by 53% to reach $16.7 billion in fiscal 2021, driven by strong growth in the data center market as well as continued strength in the core PC gaming segment. The COVID-19 pandemic bolstered demand for home entertainment solutions such as gaming, and livestreaming has emerged as an unstoppable megatrend.
|Market Platform||Fiscal 2021 Revenue||YOY Growth|
|Data Center||$6.7 billion||124%|
|Professional Visualization||$1.05 billion||(13%)|
|OEM and Other||$631 million||25%|
The consensus estimate for this fiscal year calls for revenue to soar by 49% to reach $24.8 billion, which is expected to translate into adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $15.87. That means that NVIDIA shares are now trading at roughly 51.5 times fiscal 2022 estimated EPS.
NVIDIA Stock Forecast 2025
Wall Street is modeling for steady revenue growth in the years ahead, albeit with some deceleration as the revenue base expands. NVIDIA is expected to enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11% over the next five years, according to analysts.
Here are what analysts expect through 2025 (fiscal 2026).
That said, the bottom line will be bumpier as NVIDIA invests aggressively in the business.
|Year||Adjusted EPS||YOY Growth|
Broadly speaking, the global PC gaming industry is forecast to grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $7.6 billion in 2025, representing a CAGR of 10%, according to Research and Markets.
Meanwhile, AI and cloud computing will drive sales of data center chips (NVIDIA recently unveiled its first specialized data center processor dubbed “Grace”) and the rise of cryptocurrency prices provides a strong incentive for crypto miners to continue investing in equipment.
NVIDIA Stock Forecast 2030
Farther out, NVIDIA’s top line could top $50 billion within a matter of years. Long-term forecasts are fundamentally more speculative since market conditions and competitive landscapes can shift significantly.
Here’s how analysts see NVIDIA’s sales climbing over the next nine fiscal years.
Profitability is expected to start growing at a steadier pace near the end of the decade.
|Year||Adjusted EPS||YOY Growth|
NVIDIA Bull Case
NVIDIA is executing incredibly well across its most promising opportunities as the company sits at the epicenter of several secular megatrends.
It’s been a little over a year since NVIDIA closed its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, a deal that was first announced in 2019 that will strengthen its position in HPC applications in the data center.
More controversially, NVIDIA is attempting to acquire British chip designer Arm from Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank (OTC: SFTBY), a $40 billion transaction that could fundamentally reshape the mobile chip industry.
Arm has a unique position in the semiconductor value chain, with its architecture powering over 95% of all smartphones. The proposed acquisition has attracted controversy since NVIDIA is currently an Arm customer and critics worry that the deal could undermine Arm’s neutrality.
NVIDIA’s bull case is predicated on continued strength in gaming—the company expanded its market share of discrete GPUs in the first quarter to 81% according to Jon Peddie Research—as well as expectations that the company can continue expanding its presence in the data center market, which has long been a stronghold for chip juggernaut Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).
If the company can close the Arm acquisition, that will further cement NVIDIA as a formidable titan in the chip industry.
NVIDIA Bear Case
There are many risks that threaten NVIDIA’s prospects. The proposed acquisition of Arm is also expected to face strong pushback and attract intense regulatory scrutiny.
If regulators block the deal, that could hinder NVIDIA’s aspirations and NVIDIA would be on the hook for a $1.25 billion breakup fee if the transaction fails.
While Intel’s competitiveness lagged in recent years under former CEO Bob Swan, who was criticized for focusing too much on financial results instead of technological innovation, the company recruited former Intel exec Pat Gelsinger as new CEO earlier this year.
Gelsinger could reinvigorate Intel’s competitiveness, which would represent a threat to NVIDIA, particularly in the data center market.
At the same time, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is also eyeing data centers for HPC applications with its pending acquisition of Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX). AMD is also NVIDIA’s primary competitor in the GPU market and the rival has been executing very well under CEO Lisa Su.