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Few companies became inadvertent beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic like Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM).
The videoconferencing specialist became a household name seemingly overnight as the crisis forced people to shift to remote working and learning. As a result of the skyrocketing engagement that led to stellar growth, the stock soared by nearly 400% in 2020.
Expectations for future growth remain high, with shares currently trading at around 133.6 times earnings. The stock is currently priced at approximately $387, meaningfully below its all-time high of nearly $589.
Wall Street analyst price targets range from $242 to $525, while the average valuation estimate sits at $401.84.
Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM)
Price: $388.89 (as of close Jul 1, 2021)
Market Cap: 113,874,699,894
Zoom Stock Forecast 2021
Keep in mind that Zoom’s fiscal years don’t line up exactly with calendar years. The company’s fiscal 2021 just closed at the end of January, with fiscal 2022 currently underway. The estimates below represent fiscal years.
Zoom’s revenue in fiscal 2021 soared 326% to $2.65 billion, with large enterprise organizations being a critical growth driver. The number of customers that generate over $100,000 in trailing 12 months (TTM) revenue climbed 156% to 1,644 at the end of last fiscal year. This metric climbed again to 1,999 in the fiscal first quarter.
Importantly, many enterprises have now recognized the benefits of remote working and hybrid models and aren’t going back to pre-pandemic behaviors. The pandemic has ushered in a new productivity paradigm, one that will incorporate Zoom’s services for the long haul.
Thanks to the strong momentum, Zoom recently raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2022 (comparable to calendar 2021). The company now expects revenue this fiscal year to be $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion, up from the prior forecasted range of $3.76 billion to $3.78 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) should be $4.56 to $4.61.
Wall Street is looking for more, with the consensus estimate for adjusted EPS currently sitting at $4.68. Zoom shares are trading at 83.1 times fiscal 2022 estimated EPS.
Zoom Stock Forecast 2025
Wall Street expects Zoom’s run to continue, with revenue expected to approach $9 billion by fiscal 2026. That would represent a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% over the next five years.
Here are the sales analysts are modeling for.
In terms of the bottom line, adjusted EPS is forecasted to more than double from fiscal 2021 levels of $3.34.
|Year||Adjusted EPS||YOY Growth|
Zoom started to enjoy significant operating leverage in 2020, allowing profits to explode while still giving the company plenty of money to invest in its technology. That leverage will continue if Zoom can maintain its trajectory.
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Zoom Stock Forecast 2030
As always, long-term forecasts face greater uncertainties since the future is difficult to predict. That’s especially true in the technology sector, where things can change at the drop of a hat. That being said, Wall Street’s models can still be useful in setting investor expectations.
Analysts believe that Zoom could generate nearly $20 billion in revenue in fiscal 2031.
Top line growth will lead to soaring profits.
|Year||Adjusted EPS||YOY Growth|
Zoom Bull Case
Even as Zoom is coming off a year of astronomical growth due to the pandemic, there are plenty of upside opportunities for the company to pursue.
Zoom hopes to disrupt traditional teleconferencing solutions, including legacy hardware phones. The company just launched Zoom Phone Appliances, working with dominant enterprise suppliers like Poly (NYSE: POLY), which was formerly known as Plantronics, to integrate Zoom directly into desk phones.
The company has also introduced a virtual event platform, taken over conference rooms with Zoom Rooms, and partnered with many consumer-oriented companies to make Zoom available on video calling devices.
On top of that, Zoom has worked diligently to improve security with end-to-end encryption following high-profile instances of “Zoombombing,” in which uninvited users joined Zoom calls to share inappropriate content.
International growth is also still in the early innings, with international markets starting to play a larger role in expanding sales.
Zoom Bear Case
As is often the case when a company succeeds wildly, that success attracts competition. Incumbent enterprise videoconferencing giants like Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) will likely respond to the threat Zoom poses with new offerings designed to defend the space.
Zoom CEO Eric Yuan had left Cisco in order to upend the videoconferencing market and the chief executive has clearly made his mark.
Larger technology behemoths—including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google, Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)—have started to aggressively invest in video calling platforms, both for consumer-facing applications as well as within the enterprise.
Intensifying competition could put a dent in Zoom’s user growth and/or diminish the company’s pricing power, particularly as tech giants can often afford to undercut on price since they have countless other businesses while Zoom is a pure-play on videoconferencing.